关键词: 出口贸易, “一带一路”, 日本, 挤出效应

Abstract: Based on calculations of Chinese and Japanese export similarity and comparative advantage to the countries along “the Belt and Road”, this paper, using extended trade gravitation model and classified data of commodity trade and service trade, empirically analyzes if Chinese exportation to the countries alongside “the Belt and Road” has the crowding out effect on Japanese export trade. The result shows that Chinas merchandise exports to countries along the route will promote Japans service exports instead of crowding out Japanese merchandise exports. On this basis, the paper analyzes the potential of cooperation between China and Japan in trade with countries along the “the Belt and Road”. Thus, the paper refutes the view that the development of “the Belt and Road” countries crowds out the trade of other nonparticipating ones. It is a more scientific and comprehensive response to views like “crowding out effect” and even “China threat theory”. In addition, it better reflects the mutual beneficial and winwin developmental situation brought by the “the Belt and Road” initiative for countries around the world.

Key words: export trade, “the Belt and Road”, Japan, crowding out effect