日本问题研究 ›› 2023, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (2): 23-37.DOI: 10.14156/j.cnki.rbwtyj.2023.02.003

• 俄乌冲突视域下的日本政治与经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

俄乌冲突下的日本经济:冲击、对策与困境

何骋   

  1. 南开大学 日本研究院,天津300071
  • 收稿日期:2023-03-11 出版日期:2023-04-25 发布日期:2023-06-30
  • 作者简介:何骋,男,南开大学博士研究生,主要从事世界经济、战后日本经济研究。

The Japanese Economy Under the Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Shocks, Countermeasures, and Structural Dilemmas

HE Cheng   

  1. Institute of Japan Studies, Nankai University, Tianjin, 300071, China
  • Received:2023-03-11 Online:2023-04-25 Published:2023-06-30

摘要: 俄乌冲突对世界经济造成了巨大的不确定性,并通过贸易及投资渠道,将冲击迅速传导至日本。俄乌冲突下的日本经济遭受冲击。宏观层面,日本实际GDP再现衰退,物价高企、居民消费需求低迷,经常项目收支由顺转逆。微观层面,企业经营环境严重恶化,特别是中小企业利润空间受到严重挤压,面临生存危机。为应对冲击,日本采取了相对积极的经济对策。然而,这些对内对外的经济政策却呈现出种种自相矛盾之处,暴露出日本经济内部的结构困境。当前,日本以俄乌冲突为契机加速推进经济安全保障。但日本经济的真正问题并非来自外部的不确定性,而是根植于日本经济内部。经济安全保障一旦转向产业保护主义,不仅无法保障基本的经济安全,反而将给日本经济带来更大的危机。

关键词: 日本经济, 俄乌冲突, 经济政策, 经济安保

Abstract: The RussiaUkraine conflict has caused great uncertainty to the world economy, and the impact was quickly transmitted to Japan through trade and investment channels. The Japanese economy has been hit hard by the RussiaUkraine conflict. At the macro level, Japans real GDP has relapsed into recession, with high prices, sluggish consumer demand, and the current account balance turning from positive to negative. At the micro level, the business environment of enterprises has seriously deteriorated, especially for the small and mediumsized enterprises. Due to the squeezed profit margins, those enterprises are facing a crisis of survival. In response to the shock, Japan adopted relatively active economic countermeasures. However, these internal and external economic policies present various contradictions, exposing the internal structural difficulties of the Japanese economy. Currently, Japan takes the RussiaUkraine conflict as an opportunity to accelerate the promotion of economic security. But the real problems for Japan do not come from external uncertainties, but are rooted within the Japanese economy. Once the economic security strategy turn towards industrial protectionism, it will not only fail to guarantee basic economic security, but will bring even greater crises to the Japanese economy.

Key words: Japanese economy, Russia-Ukraine conflict, economic policy, economic security

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