关键词: 日本, 货币政策, 泡沫经济, SVAR, 货币政策传导机制

Abstract: Based on the monetary policy exchange rate and asset price transmission mechanisms, the SVAR model is built to analyze the inner relationship between the formation of Japan's bubble economy and the effects of monetary policy. The results show that the loose monetary policy implemented by Japan in response to the influences of the appreciation of the yen did not achieve the desired effects in the middle and late 1980s, and the effects on the exchange rate, export and output were not obvious, and the exchange rate mechanism became blocked. However, as loose monetary policy directly pushed up asset prices, the rapid increase of asset prices did not lead to the corresponding increase of investment and output, thus the virtuous cycle of capital market was broken, the transmission between asset prices and investment, as well as between investment and output have been blocked. The monetary policy did not boost the real economy, so it produced excess liquidity and ultimately led to the formation of the bubble economy. In view of this, China should get some lessons, such as implementing monetary policy prudently and taking into comprehensive consideration of policy effects, preventing reasonably the asset bubble expansion, guiding actively the entrepreneurship, innovation and investment which contribute to the real economy.

Key words: Japan, monetary policy, bubble economy, SVAR, monetary policy transmission mechanism