关键词: 日本智库, 中美战略竞争, 日本角色, 中美关系, 中日关系, 国家安全

Abstract: Against the backdrop of intensified strategic competition between China and the United States, Japan, as the most important ally of the United States in Asia, continues to rise in its position in the global and regional strategic layout of the United States. Selecting 32 research reports from 9 representative think tanks in Japan as samples, this study focuses on the main perceptions, internal roots, and potential impacts of Japanese think tanks on the strategic competition between China and the United States, as well as Japan's role. This will help China further strengthen its observation and analysis of Japan, and thus formulate appropriate response strategies with forward-looking thinking. Research has found that adopting a tough confrontational stance towards China at the strategic level has become the mainstream cognition of Japanese think tanks, and shows significant convergence, while there are still differences at the tactical level, especially on specific issues. The formation of Japanese think tank cognition is influenced by multiple factors such as Sino-Japanese relations and public opinion, domestic political ecology, think tank types, and expert tenure experience. This cognitive tendency not only exacerbates the Japanese governments strategic misjudgment of viewing China as a “hypothetical enemy”, leading to a more aggressive and confrontational policy towards China, but also guides public opinion both domestically in Japan and internationally to a certain extent, distorting and smearing China's national image.

Key words: Japanese think tanks, China-U.S. strategic competition, Japans role, China-U.S. relations, Sino-Japanese relations, national security