日本问题研究 ›› 2019, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (1): 20-31.DOI: 10.14156/j.cnki.rbwtyj.2019.01.003

• 经济研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

人口老龄化、技术创新对经济增长质量的影响 ——基于中日两国的比较分析

张季风1,邓美薇2   

  1. 1.中国社会科学院 日本研究所,北京 100007;2.中国社会科学院 研究生院,北京 102488
  • 收稿日期:2018-11-13 出版日期:2019-02-25 发布日期:2019-02-25
  • 作者简介:张季风(1959—),男,吉林伊通人,博士,研究员,博士生导师。主要从事日本经济、中日经济关系、区域经济等研究。
  • 基金资助:
    中国社会科学院A类创新工程项目“日本经济政策与经济战略研究——日本跨越‘中等收入陷阱’的经验与教训”(GJ082017 SCX2975)

The Effects of Population Aging and Technology Innovation on the Quality of Economic Growth ——Based on System GMM Estimation for Dynamic Panel Data

ZHANG Ji-feng1, DENG Mei-wei2   

  1. 1. Institute of Japanese Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, 100007, China; 2. Graduate School, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, 102488, China
  • Received:2018-11-13 Online:2019-02-25 Published:2019-02-25

摘要: 通过测算中国30个省份与日本47个都道府县层面经济增长质量指标,构建系统GMM模型,创新性地比较分析了中日两国人口老龄化、技术创新对经济增长质量的影响。主要结论有:(1)中国技术创新驱动经济增长质量提升的表现强于日本,人口老龄化对中日经济增长质量均具有负面影响;(2)技术创新与人口老龄化的交互作用对经济增长质量具有正向效应,技术创新可以作为应对人口老龄化挑战的有力举措。但是,这种作用在日本实证样本中统计显著,而在中国实证样本中未通过显著性检验。鉴于此,中国应借鉴日本经验,大力推进产业技术革新,提高老年人健康水平,鼓励老年人二次就业等。

关键词: 技术创新, 人口老龄化, 系统GMM, 区域经济

Abstract: By measuring the economic growth quality indicators of 31 provinces in China and 47 counties in Japan, this paper explores the influences of technological innovation and aging on the quality of economic growth through sysgmm model. The main conclusions are as follows: firstly, for both China and Japan, technological innovation can effectively promote the quality of economic growth, and the aging of population has a negative impact on it; secondly, the interaction between technological innovation and population aging has positive influence on the quality of economic growth, and technological innovation can be used as a powerful measure to deal with the challenge of population aging. However, this impact is significant in the Japanese empirical sample, but not in the Chinese empirical sample. In view of these, China should learn from Japan, promote the health level of aged people, and encourage aged people to participate in social activities and return to work.

Key words: technological innovation, population aging, sysgmm, regional economy

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