日本问题研究 ›› 2026, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (2): 1-12.DOI: 10.14156/j.cnki.rbwtyj.2026.02.001

• 政治研究 •    

日本政治的“钟摆”现象

廉德瑰,王慧慧   

  1. 上海外国语大学 日本文化经济学院, 上海 201104
  • 收稿日期:2026-02-20 发布日期:2026-05-08

The “Pendulum” Phenomenon in Japanese Politics

LIAN Degui, WANG Huihui   

  1. School of Japanese Studies, Shanghai International Studies University, Shanghai 201104, China
  • Received:2026-02-20 Published:2026-05-08

摘要: 日本政治一般表现为自民党长期执政,很少发生政党之间的政权更迭。其实,由于自民党内存在不同的派阀,党内派阀之间的政权转换也是一种政权更迭。不同党派存在不同的政治理念,这些理念不同的党派间的政权更迭会导致政策发生摇摆。因此,政权更迭及其带来的政策转换引起了政治上的“钟摆”现象。具体说,在国会的政党政治中,执政党与在野党表现为从“一党独大”到“执政联盟”,再经过“两大政党”向“一党独大”回摆的特点;在自民党政治中,表现为该党的保守右派与保守自由派之间的主导权变化,呈现“钟摆”现象。高市早苗的上台,意味着日本政治从保守自由派主导向保守右派主导转化,同时也使日本国会政治再次呈现出“一党独大”现象,也是“钟摆”现象的再现。

关键词: “钟摆”现象, 保守右派, 保守自由派, 右倾化

Abstract: Japanese politics is generally characterized by the long-term rule of the Liberal Democratic Party(LDP), with rare occurrences of governmental power shifts between political parties. However, due to the presence of different factions within the LDP, power shifts among these factions also constitute a form of governmental change. Since various parties hold distinct political ideologies, these ideologies often lead to policy fluctuations during power shifts. Consequently, both governmental power shifts and policy changes can trigger a “pendulum” phenomenon in politics. Specifically, in the parliamentary politics of Japan, the ruling party and the opposition parties exhibit a swing from “one-party dominance” to “ruling coalition”, and then back to “one party dominance” through the “two major parties”. Within the LDP’s political landscape, this is manifested as a shift in dominance between the party‘s conservative right-wing and conservative liberal factions, presenting a “pendulum” phenomenon. The current cabinet led by Prime Minister SnaeTakayichi has also demonstrated a shift from conservative liberal dominance to conservative right-wing dominance, thereby causing Japanese parliamentary politics to once again exhibit the “one-party dominance” phenomenon, characterized by a “pendulum” phenomenon.

Key words: “pendulum” phenomenon, the conservative right, the conservative liberals, right deviation

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