关键词: 中日对东盟直接投资, 竞合博弈, 博弈论, 非对称策略

Abstract: In the geoeconomic landscape where major powers compete for ASEAN as a core arena, direct investment by China and Japan in ASEAN exhibits deep-seated asymmetric competitive and cooperative game characteristics. Japan leverages its historically accumulated investment stock, high-quality standards system, and “trust premium” to build its core advantages, while China forms a late-mover advantage through investment growth driven by the “Belt and Road” and its infrastructure capabilities. Through multi-dimensional analysis of the models of differentiated sequential game, evolutionary coordination game, and infinitely repeated game, it is found that Japan builds its sequential game dominance in the infrastructure sector using “high-quality” standards; in the institutional and rule-making field, it enhances the intrinsic value of rules through the CPTPP and strengthens network effects through the IPEF, relying on evolutionary coordination game to compete for risk advantages; and in emerging technology fields, it manipulates the core parameters of the infinitely repeated game through an “economic security guarantee” strategy. Chinas solution lies not in symmetrical confrontation, but in implementing asymmetric strategies: shifting from passive compliance to proactive bid creation, upgrading from project competition to ecosystem building, solidifying the foundation of trust with “patient capital”, and exploring limited pragmatic cooperation, ultimately reshaping the game landscape and strengthening Chinas strategic initiative and sustainability in ASEAN investment.

Key words: direct investment by China and Japan in ASEAN, competitive and cooperative game, game theory, asymmetric strategies