关键词: 日欧EPA, 中欧货物贸易, 中日货物贸易, GTAP模型

Abstract: Japan and the European Union are important trading partners of China. Japan-Europe EPA will have a great impact on Sino-Japanese and Sino-European trade in goods. The evaluation results of GTAP model show that tariff reductions between Japan and Europe will worsen Chinas terms of trade. Chinas import from and export to Japan will decrease significantly; Chinas exports to the EU will increase while Chinas imports from the EU will decline. The heterogeneity of the impacts on different industries is obvious. Chinas live animals and animal products, leather products, and textiles exports to Japan will significantly decline while exports to the EU will increase. Chinas exports of mechanical and electrical products,automobiles, and transportation equipment to Japan will increase while exports to the EU will decrease. Chinas imports of mechanical and electrical products,automobiles and transportation equipment, chemical rubber products, and metals and metal products from Japan and the EU will decline significantly,especially imports of mechanical and electrical products. In response to this, China urgently needs to promote the diversification of export market and import sources, strengthen the construction of early warning mechanisms for key import industries, enhance the international competitiveness of export products, and accelerate the establishment of free trade zones.

Key words: EU-Japan EPA, China-Japan trade in goods, China-EU trade in goods, GTAP Model