日本问题研究 ›› 2018, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (5): 1-6.DOI: 10.14156/j.cnki.rbwtyj.2018.05.001

• 政治外交研究 •    下一篇

战略考量与日本对“一带一路”态度的转变

廉德瑰   

  1. 上海外国语大学 日本文化经济学院,上海 200083
  • 收稿日期:2018-07-11 出版日期:2018-10-25 发布日期:2018-10-25
  • 作者简介:廉德瑰(1961—),男,黑龙江哈尔滨人,博士、教授、博士生导师,主要从事日本政治外交、日本历史文化、中日关系等研究。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重点项目“海洋政治问题研究”(17AZD014)

Strategic Considerations and Japanese Attitudes to the Belt and Road Initiative

LIAN Degui   

  1. School of Japanese, Shanghai International Studies University, Shanghai, 200083, China
  • Received:2018-07-11 Online:2018-10-25 Published:2018-10-25

摘要: 日本对“一带一路”倡议态度的战略考量,在三种思考模式下发生变化。首先是权力思考决定了日本最初对“一带一路”采取观望态度,作为贸易大国的日本对海权变化密切关注,担心利益受损,因此对“一带一路”倡议持消极观望态度。其次是利益思考影响了日本对“一带一路”态度的转变,经过测算,日本认识到“一带一路”可以带来巨大商机,日本企业不能丧失机会。第三是日本对“一带一路”态度的转变也基于外交思考,特朗普退出TPP让安倍十分失落,主要国家就“一带一路”的态度变化,对安倍也是一个刺激,而安倍也试图在中俄关系中打进一个楔子。总之,日本对“一带一路”态度开始转变,在保持谨慎的同时,通过有条件的支持,谋求权力、利益和外交上的好处。

关键词: 战略考量, 权力思考, 利益思考, 外交思考

Abstract: The strategic considerations of Japanese attitudes towards the Belt and Road Initiative have changed under three modes of thinking. First of all, power thinking determined that Japan initially adopted a waitandsee attitude towards the Belt and Road Initiative. Japan, as a major trading nation, is closely following the changes in maritime rights and worried about the loss of interest, hence taking a negative wait-and-see attitude towards the Belt and Road Initiative. Second, interest thinking has influenced Japanese attitudes toward the Belt and Road Initiative. It is estimated that Japan recognizes that the Belt and Road can bring great business opportunities, and Japanese companies can not afford to lose these opportunities. Third, Japans change of attitude towards the Belt and Road Initiative is also based on diplomatic thinking. Mr. Trumps withdrawal from the TPP is a great disappointment to Mr. Abe. The change in the attitude of major countries towards the Belt and Road Initiative is also a stimulus to Abe. In addition, Abe also tried to intervene between SinoRussian relationships. All in all, Japanese attitudes toward the Belt and Road have begun to change. While remaining cautious, Japan seeks power, interests, and diplomatic benefits through conditional support.

Key words: strategic considerations, power thinking, interest thinking, diplomatic thinking

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